GAME RAZOR

Battlefield vs Call of Duty

2011-09-23T21:27:00.000-07:00

I'll pretend I'm Michael Pachter and make some predictions on the upcoming Battlefield 3 and Modern Warfare 3.

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 will...

Equal or break 24 hour sales of Black Ops
Sell 18-20 million copies over a 1 year period
Sell 10 million DLC units
Sell 12 million copies on Xbox 360, 5-6 million copies on Playstation 3, 1-2 million all other systems
Average an 88 Metacritic score on consoles, 82 on PC

Battlefield 3 will...

Sell 4 million copies total over the holiday sales period
Sell 10-12 million copies over a 1 year period
Sell 6-8 million copies on Xbox 360, 2-3 million on Playstation 3, 1-2 million on PC.
Average a 92 Metacritic score on consoles, 94 on PC

Both games will do well and make their respective companies money, but Activision will have to take a hard look at where the future of Call of Duty lies. A close watch will be on the larger player counts of both games on various platforms, as they move back towards 24/32/64 player counts. I feel that Activision must upgrade the game engine for the next iteration to take advantage of the sudden shift of game development back to PC from ageing consoles. In addition I feel that Call of Duty needs to add larger maps and user controlled vehicles, along with a fully co-op campaign, and continue to develop modes for tournament play.

EA will be somewhat disappointed they did not "beat" Call of Duty in sales, but will have set the franchise up better for the long-term. Dice has already stated that the Battlefield series will not be yearly, which will put additional pressure on them to keep the game "fresh" over a longer product cycle. This means possibly moving towards paid DLC and expansions, something that was not done on Bad Company 2 with the exception of the Vietnam and alternate gear pack. The lower player count on Xbox (24) may shift more sales to the PS3 and PC. However, higher system requirements on PC may cut into potential sales and/or cause early buyers of the game to stop playing shortly after launch.

Both game companies plan extensive DLC for their games, which may cause much greater player base fragmentation than previous games. It will be interesting to see if EA tries to monetize the DLC to draw another potential $60-$80 out of players, or they continue with the "free" addons with more paid expansions. Both companies are rolling out advanced stat tracking very similar to what Bungie has done with the Halo series, but I feel that Activision's Elite is much more robust than EA's Battlog. If EA wants that feature to succeed they will need to add video and screenshot uploading, along with more social networking features.

Activision is once again going with Steamworks for Call of Duty on the PC, along with dedicated servers. This shows that their rumored plans to integrate their online catalog into Blizzard's Battle.net is either not ready or cancelled. The two possible scenarios is that the integration does happen and starts with the downloadable F2P Call of Duty game that is currently only announced for Asian markets. The other scenario is that Elite becomes the launch pad for any and all action/shooter games for Activison.

EA will be using their re-branded digital store Origin as the DRM, but still allowing other digital stores to sell the game with the glaring exception of Steam. This move is purely a money-based one. Steam takes around 30% cut of every sale and accounts for 60%-70% of digital game sales. By moving BF3 to Origin they will secure the highest percentage of profits for the first months of launch, and allow them more direct control of content delivery to the game. However, this move can and most likely will decrease the number of PC buyers or push those sales onto the console versions. At some point, well after launch, I fully expect BF3 to be sold on Steam, but only after EA takes the biggest chunk of profits.

The real test for EA will be the following holiday, where the poorly received and sold Medal of Honor will make its return. I feel there is no way, even with a major gameplay redesign, that MoH will equal the sales of BF3 or be able to compete with Call of Duty in a meaningful way. This means, that Dice will need to have a major DLC or expansion ready one year from BF3's launch.

Borderlands 2

2011-08-03T17:05:00.000-07:00

Various websites are reporting that Borderlands 2 has been officially announced (FINALLY).

(via CVG UK)

The title will once again be developed by Gearbox Software. According to 2K, the game will be released in the twelve months that follow April 1, 2012 - the beginning of parent Take-Two's financial year.

A 2K release said: "Combining invention and evolution, Borderlands 2 features all-new characters, skills, environments, enemies, weapons and equipment, which come together in an ambitiously crafted story. Players will reveal secrets, and escalate mysteries of the Borderlands universe as they adventure across the unexplored new areas of Pandora.

Environments will be more diverse and enemies will be smarter, says 2K, plus Gearbox is planning an improved mission system "capable of delivering a better story".

The original cell-shaded art style has been carried over as is and you can see an image of what appears to be the new cover star on this page.

US retailer mag Game Informer's also released more artwork from the sequel, via its next cover.

Fans and media will get their first look at the game at Gamescom 2011 in Germany from August 17 - August 21, and at PAX Prime (Booth #3417) from August 26 - August 28.

EA versus the World

2011-06-15T02:36:00.000-07:00

Recently EA's CEO John Riccitiello has been working the media promoting their upcoming Battlefield 3 and Star Wars: The Old Republic. Specifically calling out both Call of Duty and World of Warcraft as targets, Ricciteillo and EA are heavily banking on "winning" this year's war with Activision, with some estimates at over $200 million spent on each of their games. Yesterday, Crysis 2 was removed from the Steam store with no comment from EA or Valve. EA has rebranded its online store as Origin, and is possibly looking to move their AAA titles exclusively there. EA Sport's best-selling PC game, FIFA 11, is not on Steam (although FIFA Manager 11 is), and the just-released Alice: Madness Returns is also not there (but is available on Games for Windows Marketplace and Direct2Drive). EA is launching a full-scale assault on its largest competitor on console, Activision, and its top competitor in the digital sales space, Steam.

Is this a good thing?

Just a couple years ago, EA was in danger of being bought out. Fading sales of established franchises and long running customer dissatisfaction pushed EA to revamp its entire company and game development. Activision has now become the "evil empire", and Steam is the Apple of the digital game space. EA badly wants to reclaim their top spot on the revenue charts, but is this campaign pushing the company too far? I think so.

If EA fails to produce over five million copies of Battlefield 3 sold and over one million subscribers in Star Wars, they could be in a world of hurt. Riccitiello is obsessed with Activision and that will be his downfall and possibly that of EA's as well. I believe Battlefield needs to clear eight million copies and Star Wars must retain one million subscribers past the first three months, otherwise EA will be back to where it was just a few short years ago fending off bankruptcy and hostile takeovers.

EA's push to get Origin the "exclusive" place to purchase their own games is a logical one, but their tactics to do so are not. The rebranding has been poorly advertised, and the store lacks the appeal of Steam and even other services such as Direct2drive. Pulling their own games from Steam, yet still offering them on other rivals stores is baffling as well. It reeks of the overly aggressive attitude that Ricciteillo has been projecting the last few weeks, like daring someone to step out of a bar to fight. I am all for more competition as it forces companies to innovate, but what EA is doing is setting itself up for another second place finish.

If EA really wants to succeed, they need to reign in their CEO or replace him. Instead of spending $200 million marketing budgets, put that money into the games. Make sure those games are as polished as they can be and let the public decide with their wallets which is better. Enough with the brute force tactics, and more with the quality game development. There's room for everyone to do well, and bragging about sitting on top of the biggest pile of money isn't "winning", especially when it comes to video games.